S&P at Top of Range: Is the Third Time a Charm?
Once again it seems the S&P 500 is in all too familiar territory.
Yesterday's rally closed above the 200-day average for the first time
since early August, and as shown below the index was previously unable
to sustain current levels.
Some technicians look for confirmation in the form of back to back gains, a 50bps rally off today's economic news could b
e that confirmation but futures are still tentative this morning (-1.90 pts now).
Recent resistance is marked below by a grey dashed line. Peaks have been occurring at about 1130, so look for a breakout above there. If not then we're stuck in the same old trading range, although with the market's strings of 1%+ moves we can hardly call it boring. Either way look for the market to pick a direction and move from here, there is probably equal upside and downside risk of about 5%.
Economic Recovery: Main Primary Drivers Now Becoming Headwinds
thank you for your contribution Cullen Roche
Two of the primary drivers of the economic recovery are now becoming headwinds. In an interview on CNBC yesterday, Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs described why he is more bearish than the consensus. His primary concerns are the inventory and stimulus headwinds. In a similar strategy note UniCredit expressed the same concerns and provided some more detail. They believe these two trends alone could shave 6 to 7 points from GDP:
Our expectation of a significant growth slowdown is largely based on the assumption that the growth at the end of 2009/ beginning of 2010 was supported primarily by temporary factors,
whose contribution will not only decline in the course of this year but is even likely to become negative. As the following chart illustrates, the fiscal program (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) and private inventories added roughly 5 percentage points to growth in both the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010. In the spring, this contribution already dwindled to half a percentage point, and in the second half of 2010 as well as 2011 both components are likely to shave roughly 1½pp off growth. The swing is, therefore, a considerable six to seven percentage points.